on the back of a 600+ or 700 point drop in the Dow...we can only say we've been here before...

the feeling is familiar...although at -300 during midday...i didn't think it would go that far that fast...even thought it would rebound to a minimal loss

nonetheless looking forward...there's something new in all of this...that the crashes are losing steam...

i remember declaring a target level of dow at 6900...i would be highly optimistic for it to hit that...maybe scraping low 7000s is an optimistic hope from a philo-short speculator like me.

i really feel...similar to my previous prediction...that somehow...things will accelerate and steam off by december..

however i also feel historically december has been a positive month...could this mean january has more carnage in store?

it would be really surprising...

anyway i mean to say that we're nearing the end...maybe witihin the next safely 3-4 big drops...and that's it we're done...we've scraped bottom and will retreat upwards into a long narrow band...

take advantage of emerging markets like china though...and those governments that have poured money into their economy through fiscal and monetary stimulus...

those economies will be the leading lights ahead. someone once said that the amount a government spends during a recession trend not just lessens the pain but also causes the future growth to be much better...in their words...the loss of gdp would not be that bad

so if the US doesn't get a big fiscal stimulus going...then it's high time to dump almost ALL broad based US investments and run elsewhere...but if obama does what's promised...the US will survive one more round...however with an even greater devaluation of the dollar...(que gold and oil prices to rise)

well that's enough for now...

happy trading/speculating...

do not take this advice as a basis to trade. and i shall not be held responsible for your life's savings going down the drain.
speculating and trading is highly risky and no one can predict what is going to happen.

Tags: market forecast

okay so it's fallen.
eurusd...usd strength fell from 1.26 to 1.28 and it expected to climb...
usd/sgd and basically almost all other usd pairs are all falling.

this will indicate the rally will continue.
expect a bear market rally into december. but get out before december ends.

december has historically been a positive month. and it does not look like it won't be.

if you missed today's rally...or there's still a short sliver of time up until maybe later...you still can enter
but if you missed today's(24th us time) wait for the next big drop which could come later in november...(i know november is really late already)

that will be the shoo in into december...right now the force of the rally does not mean we're out of anything yet.
but that it's just a technical rebound.

don't believe advisers and anyone including your closest friends if they ask you to dump your money in now...classify them however as people you should not listen to at all..

and as always...the advice seen here is not meant to be traded upon but as a place of exericise for Nashon to make predictions and learn from his own mistakes

enjoy the holidays and keep spending frugal

Tags: market forecast

was doing some charting.

i'm nailing myself to make this prediction. please do not trade on this advice - i shall not be responsible for any misdemeanour.

USD/SGD is expected to make a big reversal soon.

within the months of late november to the whole of december.

expect the dollar to fall off it's own cliff.

yupyup. i shall watch it and see how it goes. :)

Tags: market forecast

okie daddies and mommies and little kiddies...

we're entering a narrow trading band right now...

which means we won't go too up nor oto down.

unlike the wonderful 1000,800,600,500,400,200,100 point swings in the Dow we've seen.

FX wise, it is noticeable that in the EUR/USD pair, it is also in a narrow trading band.

what this means as some books say, the longer we're in this trading band(say 1 week 2 week or 3)...

the greater the velocity of direction...which means whether we're gonna break to the downside or upside will be larger IF we stay in this narrow trading bang LONGER.

however if say tomorrow or wednesday we do move some direction then it's like the never ending DIE HARD SEQUELS folks...

its not really the bottom nor is it the turning point either...

large speculations say 3 years. i kinda agree so, however 3 years to the beginning of the next feel-good-times

but bottoms normally occur within the middle of 3 years...

here's my speculation...if the US doesn't increase fiscal spending, it really could become like Japan's lost decade...however do look strongly to CHINA.

government policy dictates that if the cat can catch mice, the cat is a good cat.

so if the government can make the chinese wealthier(including the interior) AND raise their world standing...then you can expect that the government will put to use some of those really large fiscal surpluses derived from being the world's factory(melamine sold separately)

so chill. don't expect too much this week. but do begin to sniff for clues!

Tags: finance, market forecast
Current Mood: narrowband

i think it's time to wake up to the new world.

as barclays receives fresh injections from the middle east to the tune of a mere 14billion.

realise this that the age of overleveraging and making money out of empty money is over...for now at least.

the days when you could swindle money out of people who made money as easy as it has left them are also over.

with no excess money to churn nor rising asset prices to sell and make money off, there is no easy money now.

it's true the economy will go on as it has. but shrink it will.

and people who are more interested in the world we once lived in in 2001-2007 will find it doesn't exist.

those who have sneaked into organisations with fake resumes, connections, altruism, and such cronyism, should be flushed out by the demands for efficiency and cost cutting.

that said, economic expansion, in other words, the return of easy airy money will bring back those days again one day. maybe about 4-5years later.

we wonder here what bubble it will be next.

and there will always be these people flocking(stupid singaporeans) to it again.

they raided the IT sector, and now the banking and finance sector(fuckers took up jobs only for the money), and what's next?

we saw how greed destroys the world. when hedge funds and investors parked moneys in commodities and plunged alot of people into poverty.

it is this same rich people trying to prevent the deflationary process now that will return prices to 2001 levels.

we see the effect in the plunge in commodity prices as these people who exploit any asset class lost their money and decided to pull it all out.

the best place to be is a producer. produce for these consumers. and don't trust a word they say in where to invest.

the bankers, the private bankers, the priviledge bankers, the priority bankers, the independent financial consultants, the insurance agents, the financial planners, the consumer bankers, the relationship managers, the investment relationship managers, the brokers, the dealers.

they are the sales portion of the business. the majority, are nothing but the same touters you see in bugis village or newton market.

ensure that if you want to park your 200k 300k 400k. you don't give it to someone who can talk in the same exciting slang as someone hawking wares in a department store.

make sure he has at least invested time and money in his investment appraisal skills! fucking idiots!
look for certifications like CFA, or ask him/her real fucking questions.

i've seen how insurance people sell shit. i HOPE they ALL get wiped out. those who sell it without considering the consumer. all they care about are their fucking comissions. and not the client's real purpose.

these people, some, invest their damn life savings....fuck man...how does that feel...

it feels like SHIT i tell you.

swanky mother fuckers.

Tags: finance, market forecast

hahaha. yes yes! we're capitulating! dow 8300ish now at 3 hours into friday's trading...

it's not enough yet though. if it doesn't capitulate FURTHER down...it will recover today's session by end...which is..QUE NEXT WEEKS MAYHEM

if we DO capitulate today...but it doesn't look like it has enough reasons too...so maybe 30% possibility...then next week will be a flat line around the if-today-we-capitulate

what do i mean by capitulate? dow at 7800 ish... we did see it during intraday last week...

hahaha...it's so funny cause i was posting yesterday and didn't expect today's trading to be such... o well...

SHORT SHORT SHORT YEA!

Tags: finance, market forecast
Current Mood: SHORT SHORT!

just a guess...and from what i've seen so far...
deep inside i know we're not anywhere near bottoms...because pain's still not felt on the streets yet...
true WSJ just reported goldman's gonna cut 10% of jobs. that means they probably know 2009 will be a tough year.

this also means the market levels seen here dow at 8500~86,87 levels...are well not where you'd stand on...kinda like another trap door that you stand on...

was looking at some stocks charts...and coupled with some of the stuff heard over CNBC...coupled with my feeling...(the same feeling that predicted STI at 22 when it was still 24,25...however it fell through 22,21,20,19,18...should go lower to 17,16 and maybe end off at 15 before sharply bouncing back to 16,17 trading range in 2009 and upwards potentially to 18,19 again...)

so basically...in the near term...while many would have like a protracted narrow band on the dow...it doesn't seem likely as the market begins to slowly understand how bad things are going to be...

markets always move in advance of what's felt on the street...and the price of the dow indicates sentiments...hence news releases kinda affect it if it wasn't predicted or "priced in"...like if you know a sale is coming up...you won't up front pay 80 bucks for a dress when you know you can get it at 50...so the price drops to 50 and then you buy...(kind of logic...but not quite but that's kind of the idea)

so everyone's crystal-balling the economy and reflecting it into stock prices.

basically stock indices track a couple of stocks...like for the STI it's 30 main stocks from different industries(financials, manufacturing, IT, biotech, etc)...so it reflects the prices of these industries with weightages...reflecting the economy...because the economic outlook is priced into the price of each of these stocks...vis a vis the performance of the management...hence noting how dbs' management's actions over the past year have not done it any favours...it's fallen by much more than say uob, ocbc...(of course taking into account the different style of management too in each bank)

so the DOW works the same way...one look at it should give you the indiciation about how people are feeling about the economy to come...

it's never an instant snapshot of now...everyone's all busy forecasting...

so here's my forecast...there should be a sharp drop off pretty soon...so if you're thinking or your mom/dad is thinking of buying into equities now...i'd say wait awhile more...

i believe november-december could be much worse...maybe not in terms of volatility...but the pain will be felt on the street more...and that should freak out the stock markets abit more...and bring it to it's bottom level...

i'm predicting dow at 6-7000ish at it's bottom...and expect it to go down to 75,76 soon within the next 2 months.

as for sti...it will always follow the dow...the sti and hangseng tend to do that...
sti at 14,1500ish at bottom...and low 1700s pretty soon...

i may not look it. but so far i think i'm fairly right.

Tags: finance, market forecast
Current Mood: crash dammit