okie daddies and mommies and little kiddies...

we're entering a narrow trading band right now...

which means we won't go too up nor oto down.

unlike the wonderful 1000,800,600,500,400,200,100 point swings in the Dow we've seen.

FX wise, it is noticeable that in the EUR/USD pair, it is also in a narrow trading band.

what this means as some books say, the longer we're in this trading band(say 1 week 2 week or 3)...

the greater the velocity of direction...which means whether we're gonna break to the downside or upside will be larger IF we stay in this narrow trading bang LONGER.

however if say tomorrow or wednesday we do move some direction then it's like the never ending DIE HARD SEQUELS folks...

its not really the bottom nor is it the turning point either...

large speculations say 3 years. i kinda agree so, however 3 years to the beginning of the next feel-good-times

but bottoms normally occur within the middle of 3 years...

here's my speculation...if the US doesn't increase fiscal spending, it really could become like Japan's lost decade...however do look strongly to CHINA.

government policy dictates that if the cat can catch mice, the cat is a good cat.

so if the government can make the chinese wealthier(including the interior) AND raise their world standing...then you can expect that the government will put to use some of those really large fiscal surpluses derived from being the world's factory(melamine sold separately)

so chill. don't expect too much this week. but do begin to sniff for clues!

Tags: finance, market forecast
Current Mood: narrowband

i think it's time to wake up to the new world.

as barclays receives fresh injections from the middle east to the tune of a mere 14billion.

realise this that the age of overleveraging and making money out of empty money is over...for now at least.

the days when you could swindle money out of people who made money as easy as it has left them are also over.

with no excess money to churn nor rising asset prices to sell and make money off, there is no easy money now.

it's true the economy will go on as it has. but shrink it will.

and people who are more interested in the world we once lived in in 2001-2007 will find it doesn't exist.

those who have sneaked into organisations with fake resumes, connections, altruism, and such cronyism, should be flushed out by the demands for efficiency and cost cutting.

that said, economic expansion, in other words, the return of easy airy money will bring back those days again one day. maybe about 4-5years later.

we wonder here what bubble it will be next.

and there will always be these people flocking(stupid singaporeans) to it again.

they raided the IT sector, and now the banking and finance sector(fuckers took up jobs only for the money), and what's next?

we saw how greed destroys the world. when hedge funds and investors parked moneys in commodities and plunged alot of people into poverty.

it is this same rich people trying to prevent the deflationary process now that will return prices to 2001 levels.

we see the effect in the plunge in commodity prices as these people who exploit any asset class lost their money and decided to pull it all out.

the best place to be is a producer. produce for these consumers. and don't trust a word they say in where to invest.

the bankers, the private bankers, the priviledge bankers, the priority bankers, the independent financial consultants, the insurance agents, the financial planners, the consumer bankers, the relationship managers, the investment relationship managers, the brokers, the dealers.

they are the sales portion of the business. the majority, are nothing but the same touters you see in bugis village or newton market.

ensure that if you want to park your 200k 300k 400k. you don't give it to someone who can talk in the same exciting slang as someone hawking wares in a department store.

make sure he has at least invested time and money in his investment appraisal skills! fucking idiots!
look for certifications like CFA, or ask him/her real fucking questions.

i've seen how insurance people sell shit. i HOPE they ALL get wiped out. those who sell it without considering the consumer. all they care about are their fucking comissions. and not the client's real purpose.

these people, some, invest their damn life savings....fuck man...how does that feel...

it feels like SHIT i tell you.

swanky mother fuckers.

Tags: finance, market forecast

hahaha. yes yes! we're capitulating! dow 8300ish now at 3 hours into friday's trading...

it's not enough yet though. if it doesn't capitulate FURTHER down...it will recover today's session by end...which is..QUE NEXT WEEKS MAYHEM

if we DO capitulate today...but it doesn't look like it has enough reasons too...so maybe 30% possibility...then next week will be a flat line around the if-today-we-capitulate

what do i mean by capitulate? dow at 7800 ish... we did see it during intraday last week...

hahaha...it's so funny cause i was posting yesterday and didn't expect today's trading to be such... o well...

SHORT SHORT SHORT YEA!

Tags: finance, market forecast
Current Mood: SHORT SHORT!

just a guess...and from what i've seen so far...
deep inside i know we're not anywhere near bottoms...because pain's still not felt on the streets yet...
true WSJ just reported goldman's gonna cut 10% of jobs. that means they probably know 2009 will be a tough year.

this also means the market levels seen here dow at 8500~86,87 levels...are well not where you'd stand on...kinda like another trap door that you stand on...

was looking at some stocks charts...and coupled with some of the stuff heard over CNBC...coupled with my feeling...(the same feeling that predicted STI at 22 when it was still 24,25...however it fell through 22,21,20,19,18...should go lower to 17,16 and maybe end off at 15 before sharply bouncing back to 16,17 trading range in 2009 and upwards potentially to 18,19 again...)

so basically...in the near term...while many would have like a protracted narrow band on the dow...it doesn't seem likely as the market begins to slowly understand how bad things are going to be...

markets always move in advance of what's felt on the street...and the price of the dow indicates sentiments...hence news releases kinda affect it if it wasn't predicted or "priced in"...like if you know a sale is coming up...you won't up front pay 80 bucks for a dress when you know you can get it at 50...so the price drops to 50 and then you buy...(kind of logic...but not quite but that's kind of the idea)

so everyone's crystal-balling the economy and reflecting it into stock prices.

basically stock indices track a couple of stocks...like for the STI it's 30 main stocks from different industries(financials, manufacturing, IT, biotech, etc)...so it reflects the prices of these industries with weightages...reflecting the economy...because the economic outlook is priced into the price of each of these stocks...vis a vis the performance of the management...hence noting how dbs' management's actions over the past year have not done it any favours...it's fallen by much more than say uob, ocbc...(of course taking into account the different style of management too in each bank)

so the DOW works the same way...one look at it should give you the indiciation about how people are feeling about the economy to come...

it's never an instant snapshot of now...everyone's all busy forecasting...

so here's my forecast...there should be a sharp drop off pretty soon...so if you're thinking or your mom/dad is thinking of buying into equities now...i'd say wait awhile more...

i believe november-december could be much worse...maybe not in terms of volatility...but the pain will be felt on the street more...and that should freak out the stock markets abit more...and bring it to it's bottom level...

i'm predicting dow at 6-7000ish at it's bottom...and expect it to go down to 75,76 soon within the next 2 months.

as for sti...it will always follow the dow...the sti and hangseng tend to do that...
sti at 14,1500ish at bottom...and low 1700s pretty soon...

i may not look it. but so far i think i'm fairly right.

Tags: finance, market forecast
Current Mood: crash dammit

market volatility has been well...trader's paradise...

after the biggest one day dow gain in history everyone thought it was over

newspapers and to a large extent of "financial" reporters love to sound positive like carrying news a lovely couple's getting married whenever the market rises...
i see how their faces lighten up...as if things will get better...and you tell me you're having a rollercoaster experience? seriously. oh please.

anyway i wasn't expecting the dow to go down back under 9000 that quick...

anyway part of my fucking analysis that got eaten up. i just wanted to say.

children if your parents or anyone that has money wants to invest? invest in commodities.(before this small retracement of prices ends)

because if the economy doesn't slump(no blood felt in the street)

we are going to have mega-inflation by the time 2010 comes. (full analysis some other day)

commodities present a good exposure to inflation linked goods. as inflation(price levels) rise so do these goods. foodstuffs will be a good place to start.

it may not look it right now. but definitely it will rise(unless the economy really slows. which given the amount of bailing out now, "like injecting heroin to a patient to make them feel better")

anyway that's not my point. my point is this.

i decided to take abit of interest in my FSX this week and i think i'm fortunate to be found on the top10 for the 1 week table.

lol. so i took a screenshot it(so vain) and yea. lol.



im from UK! :D i purposely put that cuz it just looks more swanky. yea baby! haha

Tags: finance

studying Solow's growth model.
And to broadly highlight why China really is gonna be up there quite soon (2years)
Here is my loose, non-empirical, very very broadly defined discussion about China.

Solow states that two countries with similar population growth and savings rate and access to same technology/productivity will end up in their steady state having the same level of per person income.

China's population growth. 1.6billion? If they took the hooks off their 1 only policy now. They could kick start a second wave of prosperity that can be experienced 40years later as we just begin a new wave now so income drops should not be noticeable

China's saving rate. It is with great interest that chinese households are reputed to save even up to 80% of income. No wonder the americans(soon to be usurped) have pleaded for chinese government to make them save less.(and appreciate the yuan and export less and buy more US goods)

Combining these two factors, comparing with the US plus the fact China does have access to productivity features thanks to MNCs operations stationed in the worlds factory. Therefore then, China's expected position on the graph is a gargantuan leap (output per capita/capital per capita) over the US as it trounces the US across these 2 factors and roughly on par for the other..

In fact because US savings rate is notoriously low and credit spending ridiculously high. Plus theirs is a consumer led economy. Furthermore as a developed nation population growth is negligible. Makes them in a very bad position if they were to plot this on a graph(im sure they have)

In fact looking at currency flows alone, the fact so much foreign direct goverment is in China(although some split evenly or wholly owned with foreign ownership.) means that China is where the real money is at. US, inventors of leverage are barely hanging on with paper money. Recent subprime washouts reveals that corporate america knows where the money is at with soverign wealth funds being invited to purchase US corporate equity to the irritation to the hawks on capitol hill, who are still desperately trying to paper together the facade of mighty america.
They should learn from agile CEOs who have already staked out positions in China already.

So and anyway. Its absolutely amazing and interesting the writing is already long on the wall on who goes where. Just ask Solow. :)

Tags: finance
Current Mood: solow woa

had my first of my 4+1 papers yesterday.

Corporati Financial..
Okay i totally self studied this mod so i didnt have to go class on saturday mornings(who the hell goes to class on a saturday morning)

my question spotting failed me terribly as CAPM totally repeated itself for section A!

And so heres my gripe:

Here im studying Corporate Finance.
Who's notion is how firms would use finance, generate finance, get better returns. Right?

In light of what the Biggest Economists and Financiers of the world have mentioned.. In light that some of them were close enough to The Great Depression.. They have called the now-like-a-bleeding-long-breakup Sub-Prime meltdown. "the worst financial disaster in history"

And thats true with up to $1 trillion in total writedowns by banks, institutions.

Subprime deals with CDOs. Collaterised Debt Obligations. Finance Whizz Product people hiding in their offices somewhere decided to take the value of loans sold to people who cant afford to pay those loans, and sell these in a package calling it low risks. Underlying asset is then these loan repayments.

In light of all this. And highlighting counterparty issues. (bear collapsed cause it couldnt fulfill its counterparty obligations)

And in light of the rapid here-to-stay development of financial products involving hedging use of options, swaps...

My damn university chooses to IGNORE ALL of this and not set a single question on OPTIONS? Why!?

We really are studying "dead" books.

Bah.

I thought id escape this singapore system. It instead came from the british!

O well. Set what you want. Bah. Unrelated to whats in the real world that you need to use in the real world.

Tags: finance, study
Current Mood: option-less